Judgment Day; Dems Scramble to Find Way to Pass Death Care [UPDATED]
With the latest polls looking rather grim for the Democrat seeking election to the seat formally held prisoner by the late Senator Edward Kennedy, Congressional Democrats and the White House scramble to put together some way to get Death Care rammed through without needing to face cloture with the possibility of a Senator Scott Brown voting ‘NO’. They’ve discussed budget reconciliation but that maneuver would strip the guts out of their Death Care bill. They’ve discussed rushing through a compromised bill while delaying certification of Brown by the Massachusetts Secretary of State thereby allowing their political stooge, Sen. Paul Kirk, to cast the required ‘Yes’ vote on cloture. And now they are actually considering bringing the Senate bill to a vote in the House. Of the three proposals, only the third has a viable shot at achieving their goals.
Attorneys for the Republican Party have been painstakingly going over legal language in Massachusetts law which provided for the current Senator by Special Appointment, Paul Kirk, to be seated and have come to the conclusion that after a winner is declared in the Special Election being held today, Kirk will no longer be a United States Senator. The language in Massachusetts law only provides for an appointee to be seated in the Senate “until election and qualification of the person duly elected to fill the vacancy.”
The Weekly Standard explains…
But in the days after the election, it is Kirk’s status that matters, not Brown’s. Massachusetts law says that an appointed senator remains in office “until election and qualification of the person duly elected to fill the vacancy.” The vacancy occurred when Senator Edward Kennedy died in August. Kirk was picked as interim senator by Governor Deval Patrick.
Democrats in Massachusetts have talked about delaying Brown’s “certification,” should he defeat Democrat Martha Coakley on Tuesday. Their aim would be to allow Kirk to remain in the Senate and vote the health care bill.
But based on Massachusetts law, Senate precedent, and the U.S. Constitution, Republican attorneys said Kirk will no longer be a senator after election day, period. Brown meets the age, citizenship, and residency requirements in the Constitution to qualify for the Senate. “Qualification” does not require state “certification,” the lawyers said.
To my knowledge, there hasn’t been any challenge of either candidates’ qualifications to sit as a United States Senator especially since both are current office holders in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. So an attempt to rush a bill to the floor of the Senate before Brown can be seated is not a viable plan for Democrats. They would still be at least 1 vote shy of cloture on a Compromise bill.
So budget reconciliation is not an option and rushing a compromise bill is equally non-viable. That only leaves passing the Senate bill in the House. But can it?
For those on the far left who want more than the Senate bill allows it may be a difficult pill to swallow. For those who have a pro-life constituency to answer to, it may be an even larger pill.
Rep. Bart Stupak (D MI-1) authored an amendment to the House bill which gained enough majority votes to pass their version of the bill. Remember, that bill very narrowly passed gaining only 2 votes over the required 218 for passage. Without a similar restriction on federal funding for abortion I doubt some who voted for the House bill based on inclusion of that amendment would be willing to vote for the Senate bill. And any changes to the Senate bill would have to be returned to the Senate as a compromise bill where 60 votes for cloture will not likely exist after today’s election.
We must also remember that all 435 members of the House of Representatives are up for re-election (or elections to fill vacancies created by retirements) this year. Each House member who votes for this bill will have the daunting task of facing his/her constituents about why he/she voted to pass a bill that a clear majority of this nation does not want. Many members will be thinking of their political futures before casting a vote on Death Care. A vote for passage of Death Care will forever be pinned to those who cast it and spell political suicide come November 4th in most cases.
The Democrat Caucus is already down by 1 vote with the defection of Rep. Parker Griffith (AL-5) to the Republican Party reducing the Democrat Caucus from a 40 vote majority to a 39 vote majority. Many more have chosen the path of retirement rather than the embarrassing thought of facing the voters of their district for helping to pass massive spending legislation in direct contrast to the wishes of the people of their districts.
What a conundrum for Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. Unless the House passes the Senate bill “as is” the Emperor’s 1st year in office will go down in history as an epic failure. But Nancy seems like she feels that she has the votes to pass the Senate bill in the House.
According to Alex Koppelman of the War Room hosted on the extremely liberal Salon.com…
Given what looks like the impending loss of the party’s Senate supermajority, Democrats have reason to be down in the dumps about healthcare reform. But if that’s the way House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s feeling, she’s not showing it publicly.
“Let’s remove all doubt, we will have healthcare one way or another,” Pelosi said during an event in San Francisco on Monday. “Certainly the dynamic would change depending on what happens in Massachusetts. Just the question about how we would proceed. But it doesn’t mean we won’t have a health care bill.”
Well let me be as equally clear as Ms. Pelosi has been. Should Scott Brown win today’s special election in Massachusetts, Pelosi will need to pass the Senate bill “AS IS” in the House to get her precious Death Care bill. Without it, Death Care is as dead as the Cap and Tax bill.
[UPDATE 1143]
Intrade’s latest numbers has Brown listed at 65.4 which means traders believe that he has a 65.4% chance of winning in today’s Special Election. Coakley conversely is down to 36.0. This doesn’t bode well for Coakley as Intrade is remarkably accurate.
[UPDATE 2 1151]
New numbers out of Intrade has Brown at 70.0 and Coakley at 30.0. It’s not looking good for the Lib-team.
[UPDATE 3 1335]
Newest numbers out of Intrade, Brown tops yesterday’s close of 77.1. Current numbers have Brown at 78.9 Coakley 21.0.









